REPLENISHABLE LAUNCH REPLEN CANDIDATE F5 ENVELOPE OVERRIDE — M1 TO CALIBRATE

TCT4039 · TCT4540 — Heavyweight Curved Hem SS Tee

BLACK · WHITE · NAVY (6 SCs / 36 SC×Sizes) · Glorify · Fast Boat 106d LT · PO1426FON lands Mon 2026-06-01 · Launch Thu 2026-06-11 (W24) · T1 cut Mon 2026-06-01 · T1 arrives 2026-09-15 (wk 15)

Overview

Demand & Timeline

Buy Allocation

Replenishment

Headline ask

Cut T1 replen PO of 9,281 units across 6 SCs (TCT4039 + TCT4540 in B/W/N) on Mon 2026-06-01, vendor Glorify, Fast Boat 106d LT, blended FOB $3.61/unit ($33,547 invoice), Layer 1 landed investment $47,610, projected 52-wk revenue at P50 (with adaptive T2-T4) $901K, net contribution $536K, return on T1 capital 11.3×. Accepted gap loss (wks 9-14, pre-T1 arrival) $14K (1.6% of revenue).

T1 PO Units

9,281

Option B 16-wk forward cover · empirical 42.5/34.6/22.9 B/W/N

T1 L1 Invest (sunk)

$47,610

landed COGS at FOB×1.42 · capital at risk

52-wk Revenue (P50)

$901,374

28,128 units sold w/ adaptive tranching

Net Contribution (P50)

$535,737

11.3× return on T1 capital · 59% net margin

Two-layer cost model (per unit, blended)

Layer 1 — PO INVESTMENT (FIXED, sunk at cut)

Landed $5.13/u

FOB (Glorify Cambodia)$3.61/u

Landed multiplier × 1.42$5.13/u

Layer 2 — VARIABLE FULFILLMENT (per unit sold)

Ship $1.40

P&P $1.10

Txn $1.11

Ship per unit$1.40/u

Pick & Pack per unit$1.10/u

Txn fee (3.5% × ASP $31.81 blended)$1.11/u

Layer 2 total$3.61/u

Scenario matrix (P10 / P50 / P90, 52-wk with adaptive tranching)

Scenario	Vel ×	Sold	Revenue	L1+L2 cost	Net	Gap loss
P10 downside	0.5×	14,287	$457,657	$179,519	$278,138	$0
P50 plan	1.0×	28,128	$901,374	$365,637	$535,737	$14,325
P90 upside	2.0×	52,151	$1,671,203	$632,427	$1,038,776	$159,000

F5 envelope FAIL: v3 forecast at 0.131× of curved-hem comp baseline (TCT4030/4525). Jon-override per "most defensible empirical reading"; M1 weekly scan calibrates at wks 4-8 actuals — if P90 materializes, upsize T2 and consider air freight on 4 unavoidable-stockout SKUs.

Investment thesis

Heavyweight curved-hem is a premium niche launch. v3 forecast (28,575u / yr) applies the empirical 13-14% curved/straight ratio observed in standard-weight comps (TCT4030/4000, TCT4525/4501) to TCT4032/4539 (HW straight reference). T1 of 9,281u at $47,610 landed covers the 16-wk forward window post-arrival.

P50 nets $536K over 52 wks at 11.3× return on T1 capital. Even the P10 downside still nets $278K (5.8× ROI). P90 upside reaches $1.04M net. Accepted gap loss of $14K (1.6% of P50 revenue) is the cost of FB lead-time exceeding initial PO coverage; we manage rather than expedite. M1 weekly scan calibrates assumptions starting launch wk 4.

52-week weekly demand forecast (v3) · P10 / P50 / P90

P50 baseline ≈ 443u/wk (level anchor). Weekly variation driven by D2C-canonical cy_week_promo_map overlay (Father's Day, July 4, Aug Anny, Labor Day, October Sale, BFCM 4.88× peak, Holiday Gifting, New Year, Presidents Day, End of Season, Spring Sale). Total 52-wk: P10 14.3K · P50 28.6K · P90 57.2K.

Cumulative units sold (P50) vs total inventory available

Monthly trajectory (P50, $ revenue)

Key milestones

2026-05-25 — TODAY
Forecast v1 published (md5 7af0f031...). Status = AWAITING_GRADUATION.
Mon 2026-06-01
T1 PO cut day (Glorify FB) · PO1426FON lands FON same day · T1 invoice $33,547 FOB
Thu 2026-06-11
Launch goes live · M1 weekly scan begins (Mon 6/15 first run)
Mon 2026-06-29
M1 calibration review (wks 1-4 actuals) · resize T2 if needed
Aug 3 - Sep 14, 2026
Accepted stockout window: 12 SKUs (mostly WHITE) · $14K lost rev at P50
Tue 2026-09-15
T1 arrives at FON · stocks back up · launch wk 15
~Mon 2026-09-28
T2 cut window (per robust trigger; conditional on M1)
~Mon 2027-01-18
T2 arrives · maintains 16-wk forward cover into spring 2027

T1 PO color mix (empirical correction vs PO1426FON)

T1 mix 42.5 / 34.6 / 22.9 (B / W / N) corrects PO1426FON's 58.8 / 17.5 / 23.8 bias. Empirical un-censored color mix is 47 / 31 / 22 (cross-validated across HW wks 1-2, curved-hem steady, straight steady). Initial PO over-allocated BLACK by ~12pp / under-allocated WHITE by ~14pp.

T1 size curve (units per size, TCT4039 reg vs TCT4540 tall)

Reg curve from HW_REG (TCT4032 wks 1-2 clean): S 2 / M 17 / L 38 / XL 31 / 2XL 10 / 3XL 2. Tall curve from HW_TALL (TCT4539 wks 1-2): S 1 / M 6 / L 24 / XL 34 / 2XL 30 / 3XL 5.

T1 PO units · color × size grid (TCT4039 reg)

Color	S	M	L	XL	2XL	3XL	Total
BLACK	32	546	1,145	1,221	363	37	3,344
WHITE	70	505	1,186	802	224	42	2,829
NAVY	12	406	899	431	54	22	1,824
TCT4039 total	114	1,457	3,230	2,454	641	101	7,997

T1 PO units · color × size grid (TCT4540 tall)

Color	M	L	XL	2XL	3XL	Total
BLACK	38	152	115	243	49	597
WHITE	17	102	167	93	3	382
NAVY	26	81	119	76	3	305
TCT4540 total	81	335	401	412	55	1,284

MCQ pool check {TCT4032 + TCT4039 + TCT4540 + TCT4539} · 3,000u per color

Color	T1 launch alone	MCQ requirement	Gap	Status
BLACK	3,941	3,000	+941	✓ clears alone
WHITE	3,211	3,000	+211	✓ clears alone
NAVY	2,129	3,000	−871	combined w/ TCT4032/4539 restock (already stocked out)

M1 graduation framework · GO / HOLD / NO-GO

v3 actuals confirmed

wks 1-4 actuals within [0.6×, 1.5×] of v3 forecast (5,669u over 12 wks ≈ 1,890u over 4 wks). → Proceed at v3 cadence. T2 ~7,770u, cut around wk 17-18 (Oct 2026), arrive Jan 2027.

HOLD

Mixed signal — wait 4 wks

wks 1-4 actuals outside [0.6×, 1.5×] band but no clear directional read. → Wait until wk 8 actuals before T2 sizing decision. Mid-band reduces T2 sizing confidence.

NO-GO / RESIZE

Forecast level wrong

actuals < 0.6× v3 → forecast too high, downsize/skip T2 (~$33K capital saved). Or actuals > 1.5× v3 → premium-skew confirmed, upsize T2 to ~15K and re-forecast at higher curved/straight ratio.

Decision gate: Mon 2026-06-29 (wks 1-4 actuals). M1 weekly scan re-emits this dashboard each Monday with current verdict.

Supply at land + Forward WOS · at T1 arrival 2026-09-15 (launch wk 15)

Supply at land

11,454u

leftover 2,173 + T1 9,281

Fwd 16-wk velocity

714/wk

v3 forecast wks 15-30, blended across all SKUs

Fwd WOS at land

16.0 wks

target 16 · trigger threshold 17.1

T2 trigger gap

−1.1 wks

below trigger on arrival · T2 cut ~10/5

Per-SC supply at T1 land

SC	PO start	Leftover	+ T1	= Supply	Vel/wk	Fwd WOS
TCT4039BLACK	4,398	1,550	3,344	4,894	305.7	16.0wk
TCT4039WHITE	1,307	8	2,829	2,837	177.1	16.0wk
TCT4039NAVY	1,780	454	1,824	2,278	142.2	16.0wk
TCT4540BLACK	526	119	597	716	44.3	16.2wk
TCT4540WHITE	189	20	382	402	24.5	16.4wk
TCT4540NAVY	177	21	305	326	19.8	16.5wk
LAUNCH	8,377	2,173	9,281	11,454	713.7	16.0wk

Per-SKU fwd WOS distribution (36 SC×Size)

Fwd WOS bucket	SKUs	T2 action
< 8 wks (near-stockout)	0	—
8 – 15 wks (short)	0	—
16 – 20 wks (at target)	33	Include in T2
20 – 30 wks (over-stocked)	1	Skip T2 (TCT4540BLACKS)
> 30 wks (heavily over-stocked)	2	DEFINITELY skip T2

Over-stocked SKUs to exclude from T2:
• TCT4540WHITES — 53.1 wks WOS (12u OH / 0.2 vel)
• TCT4540NAVYS — 47.6 wks WOS (12u OH / 0.2 vel)
• TCT4540BLACKS — 27.6 wks WOS (12u OH / 0.3 vel)
MOQ-floor Small-tall allocations · already cover through Apr 2027 at v3 velocity.

Structural caveat (LT > coverage boundary): T1 lands at exactly 16.0 wks WOS but the trigger threshold is 17.1 wks (LT 15.1 + lag 1 + safety 1). We're permanently below trigger on arrival day — T2 cut must happen ~2-3 wks after T1 lands (~10/5/2026). Each subsequent tranche faces the same structural lag. M1 weekly scan recomputes this view with calibrated actuals to keep T2 sizing honest.

Tranche schedule (LT exceeds coverage — boundary case)

Tranche	Cut	Arrive	Wk	Units (v3)	Status
T1	2026-06-01	2026-09-15	15	9,281	LOCKED
T2	~2026-09-28	~2027-01-18	33	~7,770	M1 conditional
T3	~2027-02-01	~2027-05-24	51	~886 (tail)	M1 conditional
T4	beyond 52-wk horizon	—	—	—	n/a

LT 15.1 wks ≈ target_coverage 16 wks → boundary case (G18). T1 acts as single-shot at target_coverage; T2 required to maintain continuous cover. Robust trigger: OH / velocity ≤ 17.1 wks. At v3 plan velocity, T2 trigger fires ~2.8 wks after T1 arrival.

Accepted stockout gap (intake §7 directive)

Scenario	Demand 5-14	Lost u	Lost %	Lost rev
P10 (0.5×)	2,306	0	0.0%	$0
P50 (plan)	4,613	447	9.7%	$14,325
P90 (2.0×)	9,226	4,999	54.2%	$159,000

12 SKUs stockout wks 9-14 (pre-T1 arrival): TCT4540NAVYL · TCT4039WHITEL · TCT4540WHITEL · TCT4540WHITEXL · TCT4540BLACK3XL · TCT4039WHITEM · TCT4540WHITE2XL · TCT4540NAVYXL · TCT4039WHITEXL · TCT4039WHITE2XL · TCT4039WHITES · TCT4540NAVY2XL. 92% of loss in WHITE (PO1426FON BLACK-skew error).

Decision asks · inputs Jon must confirm before T1 PO cut

Vendor

Glorify Cambodia ✓ confirmed

Vendor mode

Fast Boat 106d ✓ confirmed

FOB TCT4039 / TCT4540

$3.58 / $3.83 ✓ TCT4032/4539 parity

MOQ / MCQ

No MOQ · MCQ 3K per color (pool clears) ✓

Tier hypothesis

NOOS ✓ confirmed

Target replen coverage

16 wks ✓ (Jon override of 12)

Scaling method

METHOD_4_BLENDED_v3 (with curved/straight discount) ✓

Color mix policy

Empirical 47/31/22 (not buyer's 60/19/21) ✓

Air freight on unavoidable stockouts?

NO — accept gap loss per intake §7 ✓

ROI hurdle

N/A (Replen branch — graduates into v26)

Replen execution plan

Cut T1 = 9,281u at Glorify Mon 2026-06-01 (FB 106d LT). Arrives Tue 2026-09-15. Accept the wks 9-14 stockout gap ($14K loss at P50, concentrated in WHITE). M1 weekly scan begins 2026-06-15; first calibration review Mon 2026-06-29 using wks 1-4 actuals. T2 ~7,770u cut around wk 17-18 if v3 holds, sized higher if M1 confirms premium-skew. Graduate to v26 standing replen at the first MERGED reforecast cycle post-trigger.